讲座时间：   12月13日（周日） 16:00

   讲座地点：   同济大厦A座301报告厅

   讲座语言：   英语

   嘉宾介绍：  

王胜    申万宏源首席分析师
同济大学技术经济及管理博士
4年建筑、4年策略研究经验。历任申万研究所策略研究部总监、研究执行委员会负责人、申万宏源证券研究所金融地产部总监、固定收益部总监

个人荣誉：
2015年《中国证券报》策略金牛分析师第一名，《新财富》策略第一名。    2014年《中国证券报》策略金牛分析师第二名；《新财富》策略第四名；《证券市场周刊》策略水晶球奖第二名。
2013年《第一财经》最佳分析师策略第二名；《中国证券报》策略金牛分析师第五名；2013年《新财富》策略第四名；《证券市场周刊》策略研究卖方分析师水晶球奖第四名。
2012年《第一财经》最佳分析师建筑第二名、策略第三名；《中国证券报》建筑建材金牛分析师第三名；《新财富》策略第一名；《证券市场周刊》策略研究卖方分析师水晶球奖第一名。
2011年《新财富》建筑和工程行业最佳分析师第三名。

   讲座概要：  

With China’s economic growth transitioning into its next phase, we believe a shift in asset allocation strategies will benefit the A-share market, marking the beginning of a long-term, more rational, ascent. We see innovation as a central feature of the forthcoming five-year plan (2016-20) and as a key theme for identifying sectors offering the most promising business outlook in 2016. 

In 2016, we expect most A-share companies to see profit growth decelerate, although we believe service-oriented firms will outperform manufacturing companies. Under our scenario analysis, we forecast 16E profit growth to range from -6% YoY (most bearish scenario) to +7% YoY (most optimistic), with our base case growth assumption at +1% YoY. In particular, we expect non-financial services firms to post 16E net profit growth of +5% YoY (ranging between +14% YoY to -5% YoY). We calculate that the central bank’s 2015 interest rate cuts added c.Rmb43bn to the earnings of non-financial services firms via financing cost savings in 16E, representing 2% of 14A net profit.

We have noted a disconnection between mid- and long-term loan growth and investment growth since 2H13, suggesting that businesses have increasingly used new loans to repay existing debt. The resulting implication is value destruction rather than creation, as return on invested capital (ROIC) declines at a faster pace than financing costs. While we see limited likelihood of a large-scale credit crisis, we believe the development is worth highlighting. However, we also note that, following the release of the central government’s 13th Five-Year Plan in March 2016, local governments will begin to release detailed projects that will likely accelerate local government investment. We also anticipate significant involvement from the private sector as policymakers increasingly turn to the public-private partnership (PPP) model for infrastructure projects.